According to the latest forecast from the University of Washington’s Institute of Health Metrics and Assessment (IHME), an estimated 631,000 Americans will have died from Covid-19 by June 1.

The team behind the influential predictive model said a lot depends on the launch of the vaccine and the spread of variants. In the worst case scenario, the death toll could rise to 703,000.

“The balance between the spread of new variants and the associated increased transmission and the surge in vaccinations in our most likely scenario suggest that daily deaths will continue to decline through June 1,” it said.

By Thursday evening, the United States had reported more than 455,000 deaths from Covid-19, according to Johns Hopkins University.

The IHME cited a poll that found the number of Americans wanting to get vaccinated rose from 54% to 66%.

“Daily deaths have peaked and are on the decline. By June 1, 2021, we assume that the planned introduction of vaccines will save 123,600 lives, ”said IHME.

How to save more lives: If 95% of Americans wore masks, 44,000 more lives would be saved, IHME said. Currently, the mask consumption is around 77%.

And people need to stay even if they have been vaccinated, IHME said. If vaccinated people move and travel as usual, more people could die every day in 17 states through April and May.

“The best strategies to cope with this pandemic period are to rapidly expand vaccination, continue and expand the use of masks, and make a concerted effort to avoid rebound mobility among those vaccinated. Some states are quickly revoking mandates, which poses a real risk of increased transmission as new variants spread and vaccination rates remain comparatively low, ”warned IHME.


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