The latest forecast from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between 219,000 and 232,000 Americans will have died of coronavirus by October 24.
The so-called ensemble forecast, which is based on more than three dozen other forecasting models, shows a large variation in the forecasts of how many people are likely to die in the next three weeks.
“This week’s national ensemble forecast shows an uncertain trend in new COVID-19 deaths over the next four weeks and predicts 2,700 to 8,600 new deaths are expected to be reported in the week ending October 24, 2020,” the CDC said in their forecast.
Some of the differences depend on how people are expected to adhere to social distancing measures.
The last CDC Ensemble forecast, released on September 24, forecast 214,000 to 226,000 deaths from coronavirus in the United States by October 17.
In contrast to some individual models, the CDC ensemble forecast only offers forecasts for a few weeks into the future.
According to Johns Hopkins University, 206,825 people have died of coronavirus in the United States, and 7.2 million cases have been reported.