All of these injuries will be factors in this week’s matchups, but in many cases it’s too early to know to what extent, and we’re focusing on games where there isn’t that much uncertainty. Our league projection formula helps determine how often one team should beat another based on actual and projected win rates. That gives us probabilities of winning for each game as well as an implied profit margin – helpful for choosing games against the spread.
Green Bay Packers at the New Orleans Saints (-3)
Selection: Green Bay Packers +3
Quarterback Drew Brees appears to be a shell of his former self. The 41-year-old completed fewer than 65 percent of his passes, his lowest mark since 2012, and his target rate (67 percent) ranks 26th out of 34 passers-by with at least as many attempts as this year. via sports info solutions.
Green Bay, meanwhile, has the ninth best pass rush and twelfth best secondary school in 2020 per Pro Football Focus.
Washington Football Team at Cleveland Browns (-7)
Selection: Washington Football Team +7
Defense can win games, and it should at least keep Washington in the mix when they take on Cleveland on Sunday.
The opponents score more than eight points less per game than expected against Washington in two games after taking into account the down, distance and field position of each game against them, according to TruMedia. According to this metric, Washington has the third best defensive performance of 2020.
Tennessee Titans (-2½) at Minnesota Vikings
Selection: Tennessee Titans -2½
Viking quarterback Kirk Cousins is one of the least valuable passers-by in the NFL according to ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating. The numbers suggest that his performance is only good enough to lead a team to a 5-11 record. The Titans quarterback Ryan Tannehill is the sixth most important passer-by this season by that metric.
Best betting record of the season: 3-3.
The three games above represent our best games of the week as our analysis shows that the point spreads are the most different from what we expect when the teams hit the field. Below are tips for the other games on this week’s schedule. Trying to pick every single NFL game, however, is a breeze. The house wins so often, in part because bettors try to make too many games when the odds are not in their favor. Keep this in mind when evaluating the remaining games from week 3.
Miami Dolphins at Jacksonville Jaguars (-3)
Chicago Bears at Atlanta Falcons (-3½)
Selection: Atlanta Falcons -3½
Los Angeles Rams at Buffalo Bills (-2½)
San Francisco 49ers (-4) at New York Giants
Selection: San Francisco 49ers -4
Cincinnati Bengals at Philadelphia Eagles (-6)
Selection: Philadelphia Eagles -6
Houston Texans at Pittsburgh Steelers (-3½)
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -3½
Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots (-6)
Selection: New England Patriots -6
New York Jets at Indianapolis Colts (-10½)
Selection: Indianapolis Colts -10½
Carolina Panthers at Los Angeles Chargers (-6½)
Selection: Los Angeles chargers -6½
Detroit Lions at Arizona Cardinals (-5½)
Selection: Arizona Cardinals -5½
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-6) at the Denver Broncos
Selection: Tampa Bay Buccaneers -6
Dallas Cowboys at Seattle Seahawks (-5)
Selection: Seattle Seahawks -5
Kansas City Chiefs in Baltimore Ravens (-3½)
Selection: Baltimore Ravens -3½