Neither team will play this Thursday, but Thanksgiving week will test four more coaches and not all of them were successful with a brief turnaround. With that in mind, here are this week’s key recommendations for consensus point spreads from Thursday morning.
Best betting record of the season: 14-12-2.
Washington Football Team at Dallas Cowboys (-3)
From 2011 to 2019, with Jason Garrett as coach, the Cowboys had a 1-8-0 record against the spread in Thursday games after a Sunday game, the worst record in the NFL during that period. New coach Mike McCarthy had a 7-3-1 record against the spread during his time with the Green Bay Packers in games with just three days off. His teams were also 8-3 straight in those games.
Washington Football Team coach Ron Rivera struggled with the Carolina Panthers in games like this despite a memorable Thanksgiving win over Dallas. He’s only 2-6-0 against the spread and 3-5 right in games with three days off.
Cleveland Browns (-6½) at Jacksonville Jaguars
Selection: Cleveland Browns -6½
Cleveland’s defense is moving into the spotlight – keeping an opponent below 17 for the third straight game on Sunday – but the Browns’ offensive line has been the main group all season. The unit has had the highest pass blocking and run blocking results of any game charter with Pro Football Focus. Right guard Chris Hubbard has yet to hand in a sack in 289 games, and three other starting players – left guard Joel Bitonio, center JC Tretter and right attacker Jack Conklin – have only allowed one in each.
This week’s opponent Jacksonville has a difficult passing rush (the third worst in the league per PFF) that should allow Cleveland’s Baker Mayfield to operate virtually unhindered in the pocket. In situations where Mayfield has a clean pocket to work with, he has created a passerby rating of 107.5. That drops to 31.3 when exposed to through pressure. If Mayfield gets time to work, this game shouldn’t be around.
The above two games represent our best games of the week, as our analysis shows that the point spreads are the most different from what we expect when the teams hit the field. Below are tips for the other games on this week’s schedule. Trying to pick every single NFL game, however, is a breeze. The house wins so often, in part because bettors try to make too many games when the odds are not in their favor. Keep this in mind when evaluating the remaining games from week 12.
Houston Texans (-3) with Detroit Lions
Baltimore Ravens at Pittsburgh Steelers (-4)
Selection: Pittsburgh Steelers -4
Las Vegas Raiders (-3) at Atlanta Falcons
Selection: Las Vegas Raiders -3
Los Angeles Chargers at Buffalo Bills (-5½)
Selection: Los Angeles chargers + 5½
New York Giants (-6) at Cincinnati Bengals
Tennessee Titans at Indianapolis Colts (-3)
Selection: Indianapolis Colts -3
Carolina Panthers at Minnesota Vikings (-3½)
Range: Minnesota Vikings -3½
Arizona Cardinals (-2½) with New England Patriots
Selection: Arizona Cardinals -2½
Miami Dolphins (-7) at New York Jets
New Orleans Saints (-6) in Denver Broncos
San Francisco 49ers at Los Angeles Rams (-7)
Selection: Los Angeles Rams -7
Kansas City Chiefs (-3½) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Selection: Kansas City Chiefs -3½
Chicago Bears at Green Bay Packers (-8½)
Selection: Green Bay Packers -8½
Seattle Seahawks (-5) at Philadelphia Eagles
Selection: Philadelphia Eagles +5