Storms that develop in the afternoon and evening can create multiple tornadoes, some of which can become intense. In addition, according to the Storm Prediction Center, harmful winds with gusts of up to 120 km / h are likely, as are hail from golf balls to baseball.
It is the third time this week that some southern states have been exposed to the possibility of severe weather.
The forecast for this weekend sees noxious winds, hail and even tornadoes in some locations that were hit by tornadoes and noxious winds less than 48 hours ago. Storms on Saturday could make cleanup work in these locations difficult.
“All hazards are possible, including very large hailstones, severely damaging winds, and some strong tornadoes,” the SPC said. “The most important takeaway is that Saturday can be a busy day across the region, with the potential for flooding and severe weather,” said the Memphis Meteorological Service office.
Heavy storms Saturday
The Storm Prediction Center states that parts of Arkansas, Tennessee, and Mississippi have an “increased risk” – a level 3 out of 5 – for severe storms. There is less risk from central Illinois via north Texas and north Georgia from Saturday through Saturday evening.
While some showers and thunderstorms can be expected during the day, the threat of storms is greatest on Saturday evening and overnight through Sunday.
Current model guidelines suggest a series of Saturday night thunderstorms stretching from the Ohio River Valley to near the Gulf Coast. Wind and hail will be the main threats, but tornadoes are expected with some storms, especially in the central south.
“Just like at previous events, these warm fronts have been fairly efficient rain producers, and this particular one will be no exception,” said the Memphis Meteorological Service office.
The potential for flash floods on Saturday extends from the Arkansas-Louisiana-Texas region to West Virginia due to the potential risk of excessive rainfall.
The weather service’s Weather Prediction Center says flash floods are likely to occur throughout the Tennessee Valley, as recent soil moisture analysis shows that “much of the risk area is above the 98th percentile (extremely saturated)”.
Sunday storms move east
By Sunday, the storm system is said to be further east, closer to the Atlantic coast. Severe storms threaten nearly 60 million people from Delaware to Georgia.
“Wind damage will be the main threat, but a few tornadoes and hail will also be possible before the front moves offshore in the evening,” said the Storm Prediction Center of the threat on Sunday.
The forecast provides a “low risk” – level 2 out of 5 – for severe storms in cities like Washington, DC, Baltimore, Charlotte and Atlanta. Richmond and Norfolk, Virginia, have an “increased risk” level 3 out of 5. Temperatures will be in the 1970s and 80s, and this warm, moderately humid environment helps fuel thunderstorms.
Another problem for Sunday is the flooding. Several states had several rainy days in the past week, resulting in already saturated soil. Widespread rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected by Monday, with higher amounts locally possible in the central south.
The highest chance of flooding this weekend is in Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
Another problem is the Gulf Coast. As of Tuesday, the Louisiana and Mississippi areas have received more than 8 inches of rain, with some pockets of 4 to 5 inches in the coastal communities south of the New Orleans subway. Since the soil is already very saturated, it won’t take much rain on Sunday to cause flooding.